In one word: No. Both countries cannot afford to go to a declared war. However, the proxy war will continue and even may be upgraded to a higher level. There is, however, more chance of an American/NATO involvement than India.
Clearly, Indian government is under pressure from its public to avenge the Mumbai terrorist attack or it stands to lose out in the upcoming elections. At the same time India must show restraint to prove its pacifist credentials it has build-up to qualify for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council.
Also, the Mumbai terrorist attacks which certainly involved insiders has undermined its foreign direct investment status and many corporate giants are winding up operations or have cut down on their presence in India. A full-fledged war would definitely harm Pakistan as an investment destination, but it would hurt India more. It has a larger investment portfolio.
Pakistan is at the receiving end in this sabre-rattling and would do better if the war was not imposed on it. Struggling with a weak economy it has to show to the United States its seriousness about eliminating Taliban and Al Qaeda.
Although if India's jets did launch surgical strikes in the Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, the Pakistani public is not likely to put pressure on the government to retaliate: as long as it is in Kashmir, people don't care! In fact, an Indian attack would be greeted by many as something that would add to the burdens of an unpopular government. People are more worried about their own financial survival and they, right or wrong, blame it on the government. The US drone attacks is a case in point.
So, it seems if India did launch surgical attacks in Kashmir, the Pakistani government will not allow the Pakistani services to retaliate. This will allow the Manmoham Singh government in New Delhi to acquiesce its voters and raise Pakistan's stature at the international level as a responsible and mature nation.
What will continue between the two old rivals is the war of proxy. Destabilizing each other through acts of terrorism. India has a ready crop of suicide bombers in Afghanistan where it has influence and a strategic presence and Pakistan has the tribal area taliban and foreign elements linked to Al Qaeda. And this would provide an opportunity to the United States and NATO forces to launch a ground attack on Pakistan...
Leony Li
By
Published: 2008-12-25T15:16:00-08:00
Will there be a War Between India and Pakistan
By
Published: 2008-12-25T15:16:00-08:00
Will there be a War Between India and Pakistan
